Multidimensional Drought Intensification in Banjar Regency: A Combined Drought Index and Spatial Regression Assessment

Henyningtyas Suhel; Arif Eko Wibawanto

doi:10.24036/eksakta/vol27-iss05/741

EKSAKTA: Berkala Ilmiah Bidang MIPA

Open Access

Multidimensional Drought Intensification in Banjar Regency: A Combined Drought Index and Spatial Regression Assessment

Henyningtyas Suhel ¹

, Arif Eko Wibawanto ¹

¹ Bachelor of Applied Geomatics and Survey Engineering Technology Study Program, Department of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, Politeknik Negeri Banjarmasin, Banjarmasin, Indonesia

Published 2026-10-20

Vol. 27 No. 05 (2026) PAGES 871-883

DOI 10.24036/eksakta/vol27-iss05/741

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Abstract

Drought in humid tropical landscapes emerges from interacting rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation, surface-water, and thermal stress. This study assessed dry-season drought in Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan, for 2015 and 2025 and examined a 2025–2031 sensitivity scenario based on an assumed 1.5% decline in soil moisture, 3.0% increase in land surface temperature, and unchanged NDVI. A Combined Drought Index (CDI) integrated CHIRPS rainfall, GLDAS soil moisture, Landsat NDVI, MNDWI, and land surface temperature using Analytical Hierarchy Process weights. The CDI range shifted from 0.356–0.761 in 2015 to 0.601–0.853 in 2025, with persistent high-stress conditions in western lowlands and broader moderate stress across the central corridor. OLS residuals showed strong spatial autocorrelation, while GWR increased R² to 0.982 and 0.988 and reduced AICc, indicating spatially varying component-index relationships. The sensitivity scenario suggests increasing vulnerability where thermal stress rises and soil moisture declines. Management should therefore prioritize wetland retention and soil-water conservation in the western districts, irrigation and surface-water management in the central corridor, drought-sensitive agricultural planning in the north, and forest-catchment protection in the eastern districts.

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Multidimensional Drought Intensification in Banjar Regency: A Combined Drought Index and Spatial Regression Assessment

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